At this moment Erdogan is probably giving a speech and saying: “The USA shouldn’t irritate us, otherwise something will happen!” The (unfortunately) President of Turkey had to wait a long three months for a first phone call with American President Joe Biden. The dedicated line has always been there; picking up the phone yourself would have been out of the question for Erdogan
In the end, Biden called and was – from a Turkish point of view – not nice. He informed Mr. Erdogan that he would dub the anniversary of the events of 1915 “genocide.” The US presidents before him had avoided that. Biden did this from a position of strength because Turkey is currently struggling anyway with the measures enacted when they bought S400 missiles from the Russians. Turkey was kicked out of the F35 program, among other things.
Then the verdict against the state Halkbank for money laundering in the USA has long been concluded, only the sentence is still outstanding. If you consider that the Swiss banks have already had to pay multi-billion dollars in fines, among other things, the US could fix the fines at such a high amount that Turkey would have to determine that it goes even deeper with the economic situation. And Gülen, who Erdogan declared to be the No. 1 public enemy, lives in the USA.
How could it turn out so bad for Turkey?
On the anniversary of the events in 1915, Biden spoke of “genocide”, but consciously mentioned the Ottomans and did not mix it up with the Turkish Republic founded in 1923. In the press release about it, he even speaks of Constantinople and not Istanbul. While Biden’s choice of words can mean that he approached Turkey to keep the Turkish Republic out of it, Ankara sees it differently. The pro-government press in Turkey attributes the fact that Constantinople was used instead of Istanbul to the fact that Biden felt closer to the Greek theses in his 40-year political career and this was a “greeting” to his Greek supporters.
You just have to know one thing: The fact that Biden deliberately kept the Turkish Republic out in his statement does not change the fact that Turkey is legally the successor to the Ottoman Empire and practically has to be responsible for the estate. So the still young republic had to pay off all financial debts of the Ottomans. The debt phase that began in 1854 with the Crimean War resulted in Turkey paying off these debts by 1954. So exactly 100 years later, the whole thing came to an end.
While he can permanently blackmail the EU with the refugee card, of course that does not apply to the USA. While Turkey is a buffer zone with the Middle East for Europe, it has always been a geopolitical ally for the US. But Erdogan always relied on the wrong partners and continued to weaken this role and its influence in the region. There is no longer any country in the region where he could still exercise political influence. Turkey is pretty much alone.
“One Minute Show” in Davos
With Erdogan’s “One Minute Show” and the events surrounding “Mavi Marmara”, Turkey also lost the support of Jewish interests.
It was also wrong that when it came to disputes among the Arab countries, the AKP governments repeatedly took sides and always allied with the wrong side. Thus, a cold war with the Gulf states and Turkey, which was not manifested in writing, was instigated.
The western and eastern states always addressed Erdogan with “Hey, who are you anyway?” turned more and more away from Turkey, unless it was the EU that remained open to blackmail because of the influx of refugees.
Turkey hardly plays a role in the region any more, or rather the power that is and was radiated from Turkey has been reduced to a minimum. Since Turkey always gave the wrong answers – or failed to comment – during the Trump phase, Biden knows exactly who he is dealing with and how to deal with Turkey.
On April 26, Erdogan said as a first reaction to Biden’s words that the US should not mess with Turkey because only the US can lose. Of course, empty phrases that are only intended for the address of the supporters and are intended to stir up solidarity and secure their support, because in the USA they are likely to have caused smiles, if at all.
Send Erdogan into the desert
Since many countries recognized the events of 1915 as “genocide”, many reparations claims are being made against Turkey. The US insurance companies had to pay out a lot of life insurance policies for those killed and all of them sued Turkey. These lawsuits made no sense before the US recognized genocide as such. But now that Biden explicitly mentioned the word, these lawsuits could come back to the courts and be brought. Should one of these lawsuits be decided in favor of the plaintiff, there should be a risk that even Turkish Airlines’ aircraft could be pledged.
It must be stated that Biden’s acknowledgment of the genocide is of great importance. As always in the Erdogan’s era, Turkey is back as a candidate that could pose the greatest problems. Turkey, Turkey, when are you going to send this man into the desert – I mean to Qatar?